Reflections on Net Assessment
Andrew W. Marshall, edited by Jeffrey S. McKitrick and Robert S. Angevine, Institute for Defense Analysis, 2022, 331 pages
Book Review published on: July 21, 2025
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's shuttering of the Office of Net Assessment (ONA) is a realignment of the Defense Department's assessment capabilities, but it's not the first. Reflections on Net Assessment is a set of twelve interviews with Andrew Marshall between 1993 and 1999 detailing similar moves over more than forty years. Although it's not what one would consider a "fun" book, it does detail political intrigue at the highest levels of government, offering fascinating glimpses into how analysis played into senior leader decision-making. Interplay between agencies and senior leaders depicts how key players within the national security establishment missed critical transitions despite readily available and known information. An example given in the book is the misjudgment of the Soviet threat, beginning in the 1950s, by the CIA and other intelligence agencies.
Andrew Marshall is often touted as the father of modern systems-of-systems analysis and operational assessment. He founded ONA in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and was the leading proponent behind using comprehensive analysis to judge enemy intentions and capabilities. His legacy of assessment methodologies and processes in use today gives credence to his life's work. The interaction between senior military leadership and their civilian counterparts frames the narrative in Reflections on Net Assessment. Emphasis is placed on bureaucratic processes and institutional self-aggrandizement activities by the CIA, the RAND Corporation, and other "assessment" capabilities in misdiagnosing the Soviet threat.
Marshall's insistence that planners and leadership look beyond force analysis to understand a country's potential capacity and intent to harm American interests and security is well-founded. Reflections on Net Assessment stresses the need for a framework of analysis for long-term competition, the effect of nonrational human behavior, and organizational behavior models when attempting to determine the operational environment. The introductory chapter, titled "Themes," lays the foundation on these subjects that serve as the guideline from the 1950s through 1995.
Marshall discusses ONA's efforts during the Eisenhower, Nixon-Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton presidencies and their respective efforts to eliminate or tailor defense capabilities. Current actions by Hegseth seem wise and timely, as references from the book describing the nature and scope of net assessment in 1972 cover the topic in a little over two pages, while a 2014 "action memo" requires fourteen pages over multiple layers of organizational bureaucracy for the same effect.
Reflections on Net Assessment is a work standing outside what one usually finds when researching assessment methodologies or processes—the reader will quickly find value in the honesty that permeates the book. Well organized, the book contains a timeline of significant events from 1930 to 1949, a comprehensive notes section, and a valuable index to locate specific people or events of interest. This book is a must read for anyone unfamiliar with the events of those days in America. Additionally, academics and public policy experts will benefit from the extensive list of resources and citations that the author used in his work. This is a captivating read, recommended without reservation.
Book Review written by: Lt. Col. Carl "Pete" Johnson, U.S. Army, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas